西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场预报的实现及验证

提高渔情预报技术是渔场学的重要研究内容，地理信息系统等高新技术在渔情预报中的应用日益增多。本文根据我国在西南大西洋海域生产的鱿钓统计数据，结合海洋环境因子，利用栖息地指数方法构建了西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场预报模型，自主研发了软件预报系统。同时，利用实时的表温、叶绿素和海面高度距平值等海洋环境因子，对2009年生产作业情况进行了验证。分析认为，实际作业渔场基本上都分布在栖息地指数为0.5以上的海域，1－4月份中心渔场预报准确率为57%~74%，平均准确率为68.29%。研究认为，栖息地指数模型可较为准确地用来预测阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场，同时依靠地理信息系统等技术实现了中心渔场预报的智能化。

Implementation and verification of intelligent fishing ground forecasting of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic

Improvement of fishing ground forecasting is an important content in the field of fisheries oceanography. The geographic information system and other high technologies are applied to the fishing ground more and more. In this paper, based on the fishery data from Chinese squid jigging fleets and environmental data, the habitat suitability index (HSI) is used to establish intelligent fishery forecasting of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic, and the software system of fishery forecasting is developed by itself. Meanwhile, the paper uses real time surface temperature, chlorophyll a, sea surface height anomaly and other environmental factors to forecast the fishing ground and verify production data in 2009 by the forecasting model. The results indicated that the actual fishing grounds are basically located in the HSI area of more than 0.5, the prediction accuracy rates of fishing ground from January to April reached from 57% to 74%, and the average accuracy rate attained 68.29%. The results suggest that the HSI model can be used to accurately predict the fishing ground of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, and the high technologies such as geographic information system can realize intelligently forecasting the fishing ground.