| 2001-2013年中国重大食物中毒事件的分析评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜苏萍,王敬敬,张昭寰,孙晓红,潘迎捷,赵勇.2001-2013年中国重大食物中毒事件的分析评价[J].上海海洋大学学报,2016,25(2):306-313. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜苏萍 王敬敬 张昭寰 孙晓红 潘迎捷 赵勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(31271870)；上海市科委计划项目(14DZ1205100,14320502100)；上海市科技兴农重点攻关项目(沪农科攻字2014第3-5号、2015第4-8号)；上海水产品加工及贮藏工程技术研究中心(11DZ2280300) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了深入了解我国重大食物中毒事件的发生特征，该研究采用时间序列季节分解法、变异度值、t值检验等分析方法对我国2001-2013年重大食物中毒事件发生起数、死亡人数、中毒因素、中毒场所等通报数据进行分析评价。结果显示：我国重大食物中毒事件发生起数、死亡人数自2006年起均具有逐年下降的趋势，且呈明显的季节周期性，其中，第三季度是中毒事件发生起数最多、造成危害程度最严重的季度。对比引起食物中毒的因素，化学因素是造成生命危害程度最大的因素，但深度分析可知，微生物因素应是未来食品安全防控的重点。中毒场所的比对分析中，家庭场所发生食物中毒的后果最为严重。本研究采用多元数学统计方法对食物中毒事件进行细致、全面的分析，充分揭示了当前我国食物中毒事件发生的总体状况以及未来潜在发展趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 重大食物中毒事件 时间序列季节分解法 变异系数 t值检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/6/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/9/14 0:00:00 |
Comprehensive analysis and evaluation of Chinese major food poisoning from 2001 to 2013 |
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| DU Suping,WANG Jingjing,ZHANG Zhaohuan,SUN Xiaohong,PAN Yingjie and ZHAO Yong.Comprehensive analysis and evaluation of Chinese major food poisoning from 2001 to 2013[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2016,25(2):306-313. |
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| Authors: | DU Suping WANG Jingjing ZHANG Zhaohuan SUN Xiaohong PAN Yingjie and ZHAO Yong |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University |
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| Abstract: | In order to further understand the characteristics of major food poisoning events in China from 2001 to 2013, Census X12 method of time series model, coefficient of variation (CV), t-value test and other analysis methods were used in this study. The results showed a decline in food poisoning cases year after year from 2006. Food poisoning was occurred mainly in the third quarter. Significance test showed that chemical factor was the most important factor, but the depth analysis showed that microbial factor should be the focus of prevention and control in future food safety. Compared with other places, the numbers dying of food poisoning at home accounted for the most. This study adequately reveals the current state and potential trend about food poisoning events of China in the future by multivariate statistical analysis methods. |
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| Keywords: | Serious Food Poisoning Events Time Series Census X12 method Coefficient of Variation t-value test |
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