基于产卵场海表面温度的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群资源评估

太平洋褶柔鱼是重要的大洋性经济头足类资源，其资源变动极易受海洋环境的影响。本研究将影响太平洋褶柔鱼种群变化的内禀自然增长率（Intrinsic natural growth rate，r）和最大环境容纳量（Carrying capacity, K）与海表面温度（sea surface temperature, SST） 结合分别构建四种剩余产量模型（SP、S_r-EDSP、S_K-EDSP、S_r-S_K-EDSP），来研究SST影响下的太平洋褶柔鱼种群资源变化情况。研究结果表明四种评估模型中加入环境因子的资源评估模型（S_r-EDSP、S_K-EDSP、S_r-S_K-EDSP）的偏差信息准则（DIC）的值要小于传统的剩余产量模型（SP）的值，S_r-S_K-EDSP 模型的DIC值最小（132.6），表明该模型精度最高。2007—2018年，太平洋褶柔鱼的捕捞死亡率Ft普遍低于捕捞死亡率FMSY, 最大可持续产量MSY普遍低于MSY水平下的生物量BMSY。目前太平洋褶柔鱼冬生种群资源状况受环境影响较大，且有必要留意因捕捞过度而造成的资源生物量的减少。

Stock assessment of winter-spawning cohort for Todarodes pacificus based on the sea surface temperature in the spawning ground

Todarodes pacificus is a commercially important oceanic cephalopod resource, and its resource changes are vulnerable to the impact of the marine environment. In this study, the intrinsic natural growth rate (r) and the maximum environmental capacity (K) of the fluctuation parameters of the Todarodes pacificus population were combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) to construct four surplus production models respectively, which evaluated the changes in Todarodes pacificus population resources under the influence of SST. The research results showed that the resource evaluation model (model 2, model 3, and model 4) with environmental factors added to the four surplus production models had a deviation information criterion (DIC) value smaller than that of the traditional residual production model (model 1). The DIC value of the model 4 was the smallest (132.6), indicating that the model had the highest accuracy. According to the best model assessment, the fishing mortality F_t of Todarodes pacificus from 2007 to 2018 was lower than F_MSY. When MSY was 41.28×10⁴t, B_MSY reached 49.66×10⁴t, and there was a phenomenon of resource-based overfishing, but resources were gradually recovering. Studies have shown that the resource status of the winter population of Todarodes pacificus is greatly affected by the environment, so it is necessary to seriously consider the impact of environmental factors such as SST in future resource development and scientific management.