我国粮食“十一连增”主要因素贡献分析及政策思考

2014年,我国粮食生产实现历史性的"十一连增",并实现了连续8年粮食产量稳定在500万t以上。粮食种植面积的扩大、单产的提高以及种植结构调整等因素都是促进粮食生产持续增长的重要原因。将粮食"十一连增"的贡献因素分解为粮食单产的提升、播种面积的增加以及种植结构调整三部分,并对三者的贡献率进行测度。结果表明:"十一连增"期间,播种面积、单产、种植结构三者对粮食增产的贡献率分别是36.65%、48.27%和15.08%;分品种来看,稻谷、玉米和杂粮的增产主要由种植面积扩大而带动,仅有小麦的增产是由于单产的拉动,种植结构调整对我国粮食生产"十一连增"的贡献也不容忽视。鉴于资源约束日益趋紧以及新时期农业供给侧结构性改革,今后保障国家粮食安全、实现粮食的可持续增产关键在于科技创新、提升农业基础建设以及培育新型经营主体等措施来提高粮食作物的单产水平。

Analysis and Rethinking on Main Factor Contribution for Increasing Grain Production in China during the Eleventh Increasing

In 2014, Chinas grain production achieved a historical record of successive eleventh Increasing, and grain outputs were stabilized at over 500×104 t continuousely for 8 years. The expansion of grain planting acreage, increase of yield per unit of area and adjustment in cultivation structure were important factors promoting the sustained growth in food production. This paper broke down the contribution factors of grain production increase to acreage expansion, yield improvement and planting structure adjustment, and then measured the contribution ratio of the above 3 factors. The results showed that the contribution ratio of acreage, yield and planting structure adjustment to food production were 36.65%, 48.27% and 15.08%, respectively, for successive 11 years increase in grain production. Based on observation on varieties, yield increse of rice, corn and cereal were mainly driven by the expansion of cultivated area, only wheat yield increase was due to yield improvement per unit area. The contribution of planting structure adjustment for 11 years successive increase could not be ignored. In view of the increasingly tight resource constraints and supply-side structure reform of agricultural policy in the new era, the key issue for ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable yield increase were to increase grain yield per unit area by science and technology innovation, improve infrastructure in agriculture and cultivate new type of business entities.