河北省近20年耕地资源安全动态变化及驱动力分析

耕地资源的安全对确保区域粮食安全具有重要意义,以1991-2010年河北省耕地资源的相关数据为基础,构建河北省耕地资源安全动态变化评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS模型对耕地资源安全状态进行定量评价,并采用主成分分析法对影响耕地资源安全变化的驱动因子进行计量分析。结果表明:近20年间,河北省耕地资源安全综合指数时序变化明显,介于不安全状态和较不安全状态之间。其中数量安全指数呈先减后增的变化趋势,质量安全指数呈明显的增长趋势,耕地资源生态安全指数呈逐年下降的趋势。影响河北省耕地资源安全的驱动因素主要是社会经济因素、人口因素及自然因素。最后,结合河北省的实际情况,提出改善河北省耕地资源安全水平的相关对策建议。

Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land Resource Security and Driving Forces in Heibei Province during the Past 20 Years

The cultivated land resource safety is of great significance for ensuring regional grain security. Taking relevant cultivated land data from 1990 to 2010 in Hebei Province as basis, this paper built a dynamic change evaluation system for cultivated land resources security. The quantitative evaluation was carried out on the security status of cultivated land resource by coefficient of entropy and TOPSIS model, and the principal component analysis method was adopted to analyze its driving forces. The result showed that aggregative index of cultivated land resources security temperal changed obviously between the state of insecurity and unsafe condition during the past 20 years. The index of quantity security was first decreased and then increased, the index of quality security showed clear growth trend; the index of ecological security showed a declining trend year by year. The driving factors affecting the security of cultivated land resources were socio\|economic factors, demographic factors, and natural factors. Before ending, the paper put forward related counter\|measures to improve the safety of the cultivated land resources in Hebei Province.