我国粮食生产的时空格局及其影响因素分析

粮食问题是关乎我国国计民生的重大问题,随着经济的发展,我国粮食生产格局发生了显著的变化,对粮食供需平衡及粮食安全问题有潜在的影响。基于1997-2016年我国31个行政区的省域面板数据,从粮食产量和播种面积两个维度解析我国粮食生产布局的变化情况,并运用全局Moran'sⅠ指数检验我国各省域粮食产量的空间相关性,进一步采用空间杜宾模型(SDM)实证分析我国各省域粮食生产格局变动的影响因素。结果表明:我国粮食生产的重心逐渐北移,且各省域粮食产量之间存在明显的正向空间自相关性。有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、粮食播种面积占作物播种面积的比例及人均耕地面积均对我国粮食产量的增长有着显著的正向影响,其中有效灌溉面积与人均耕地面积的空间溢出效应显著,这些因素的综合作用使得粮食产量的格局在近20年发生了演变。基于此,建议从提升农业科技水平、完善粮食主产区的基础设施建设、保护耕地、加强各省份之间粮食供给与需求的协调等方面做好粮食安全保障工作。

Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Pattern of China's Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors

Grain issue is a major issue concerning the national economy and peoples livelihood. Along with economic development, the pattern of grain production in China has changed dramatically, causing potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand and also food security. Based on provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions from 1997 to 2016, this paper analyzed the changes of grain production distribution in China from 2 dimensions of grain yield and sowing area, tested the spatial correlation of grain yield in each province and region by global Morans Ⅰ index, and analyzed the factors affecting the change of grain production pattern in various provinces of China by Space Dobbin Model (SDM). It was found that the focus of grain production in China had gradually moved northward, and there was a clear positive spatial auto-correlation between the grain output of various provinces and regions. The effective irrigation area, chemical fertilizer application quantity, ratio of grain sowing area to crop planting, and arable land per capita all exerted significant positive impact on the growth of grain production in China, among them the spatial spillover effect of effective irrigation area and per capita cultivated land area was significant. These factors had made the grain yield pattern changing in recent 20 years. Based on this, the paper suggested to improve the level of agricultural science and technology, perfect infrastructure construction of main grain producing areas, protect cultivated land, strengthen cooperation in coordinating grain supply and demand among provinces, so as to assure grain security.