基于贝叶斯方法的FAO48.1区南极磷虾渔业资源评估

南极海域南极磷虾资源丰富,开发潜力已经得到世界范围的关注。由于南极海洋生物资源养护委员会(Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources,CCAMLR)多年来始终将联合国粮食及农业组织(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,FAO)在南极海域内设立的48.1区的捕捞限额控制在1.55×10~5t,从而引发了众多争议,采用CCAMLR公布的2006-2015年生产统计数据,利用基于贝叶斯方法的非平衡剩余产量模型,对FAO 48.1区南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)的渔业资源进行评估,结果显示:当前48.1区南极磷虾资源的环境容纳量为(1.93~7.84)×10~7t;渔业资源综合种群的内禀增长率为0.4~0.6;2016年48.1区南极磷虾的平均生物量为3.88×10~7t;48.1区南极磷虾资源当前最大持续产量(MSY)为5.5×10~6t;当前的触发产量远低于MSY的阈值,48.1区内南极磷虾资源几乎处于原始未开发状态。建议提高48.1区南极磷虾的触发产量至5.5×10~5t。

Stock Assessment of Antarctic Krill in FAO 48.1 Sub-area by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson Model

Antarctic krill is very abundant in the area surrounding Antarctica and its development potential has received worldwide attention considerably. However, the trigger level has been controlled in 155 000 t in sub-area 48.1 by Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) for many years, and it has caused considerable controversy. Based on the statistical data of CCAMLR from 2006-2015 in 48.1 sub-area and Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson model, the stock assessment of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in 48.1 sub-area was present in this paper. The results indicated that: The carrying capacity (K) of Antarctic krill in 48.1 sub-area was about (1.93～7.84)×107 t. The intrinsic growth rate was about 0.4~0.6, and the estimated stock biomass of Antarctic krill in 48.1 sub-area was 3.88×107 t in 2016. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Antarctic krill in 48.1 sub-area was 5.5×106 t. The trigger level of Antarctic krill in 48.1 sub-area was only 1.55×105 t, which was far less than the MSY. So the krill stock in 48.1 sub-area was almost in underdeveloped state and the trigger level should be increased to 5.5×105 t in the future.