赣抚平原油菜菌核病发病程度预测模型

根据１９８０～１９９７ 年的气象和病情资料，采用逐步回归分析方法和Ａｌｌｅｎ 的预报误差平方和统计方法，建立了以下油菜菌核病发病程度的预测模型：＾ｙ＝４．３４３６＋０．０２０１ｘ１ －０．００７８６ｘ２ －０．０１７４ｘ３其中ｘ１ 表示２ 月１１ 日至３ 月１０ 日总日照时数，ｘ２ 表示２ 月１ 日至３ 月１０ 日总降雨量，ｘ３ 表示２ 月１ 日至３ 月１０ 日总日照时数。该模型经拟合和预报检验，效果良好。

Model for Predicting the Severity of Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum of Rape in Ganfu Plain

According to the meteorological and disease data from 1980 to 1997,the following model for predicting the severity of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum of rape was established by stepwise regression analysis and Allen's PRESS(Prediction Error Sum of Squares) statistics: Abstract: According to the meteorological and disease data from 1980 to 1997,the following model for predicting the severity of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum of rape was established by stepwise regression analysis and Allen's PRESS(Prediction Error Sum of Squares) statistics: According to the meteorological and disease data from 1980 to 1997,the following model for predicting the severity of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum of rape was established by stepwise regression analysis and Allen's PRESS(Prediction Error Sum of Squares) statistics: Sclerotinia sclerotiorum of rape was established by stepwise regression analysis and Allen's PRESS(Prediction Error Sum of Squares) statistics: of rape was established by stepwise regression analysis and Allen's PRESS(Prediction Error Sum of Squares) statistics: =4.3436+0.0201x\-1-0.00786x\-2-0.0174x\-3 where x\-1 is the total sunshine hours from February 11st to March 10th,x\-2 is the total rainfall from February 1st to March 10th ,and x\-3 is the total sunshine hours from February 1st to March 10th.The simulation and forecast effect of the model was good by verification.