曲靖烟区烤烟大田期38年降雨量变化时空特征分析

利用曲靖烟区9个气象台站点1971～2008年的降雨量数据,采用线性趋势分析、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计方法分析了曲靖烟区降雨量的时空分布特征和变化规律。结果表明:曲靖烟区降雨量在38年内,整个大田期、伸根期和成熟期呈减少趋势,旺长期呈增加趋势。在1988年以前主要存在着6年的短周期,在1989年以后主要存在着16年的长周期,突变发生在1988和2003年。不同烟区降雨量表现为东南烟区>西南烟区>东部烟区>中部烟区>西北烟区;海拔间以低海拔烟区降雨量最高,其次是中海拔烟区,降雨量最少的为高海拔烟区。

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Change Characteristics of Precipitation at Flue -cured Tobacco Growth Stage over 38 Years in Qujing

According to the precipitation data provided by 9 weather stations in Qujing tobacco area from 1971 to 2008, the temporal and spatial characteristics and changing laws of the precipitation in Qujing were studied by using linear trend analysis, moving t - test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that： within the 38 years, the precipitation in flue - cured tobacco growth period, root extending period and mature period appeared a decreasing trend, but that in vigorous growing period appeared an increasing tendency. Before 1988, the precipitation mainly existed the short period of 6 years, after 1989 it mostly existed the long period of 16 years, and the abrupt change of the precipitation occurred in the years 1988 and 2003. The precipitation in different areas had the following order： South - east tobacco area 〉 South - west tobacco area 〉 Eastern tobacco area 〉 Central tobacco area 〉 North - west tobacco area. The precipitation was the highest in lowaltitude area, higher in mediumaltitude area, and the lowest in high-altitude area.