黑龙江省烟草野火病预警方法研究

基于黑龙江省烟草野火病的状况,根据预警理论以及指标体系的优选原则,建立烟草野火病发生程度的警情、警源、警兆和警度指标的预警指标体系。利用时差相关分析法确定指标体系的先行、同步、滞后性质。利用反馈法确定警兆指标的警限区间以及警情的严重程度。应用确定的警情指标以及警兆指标的警限和警度构建黑龙江省烟草野火病预警的决策树模型,得到合理了决策树图谱,并对预警结果进行了相应的分析和有效性判别。为黑龙江省烟草野火病的预警提供相应的对策和建议。

Study on early warning of tobacco wildfire disease in Heilongjiang Province

On the basis of tobacco wildfire disease in Heilongjiang Province,according to the warning theory as well as early warning indicators of system optimization principle,establishment of early warning indicators of tobacco wildfire disease,to the extent of warning condition,police sources and warning signs indicators system,and use the time difference relevance analysis to determine the index system leading,coincident,lagging properties.The user feedback to determine the range of warning signs warning limit indicators and warning degree.This paper builds a decision tree model on tobacco wildfire disease warning in Heilongjiang Province by definitive warning condition indicators and their warning limit and severity.By using this model,a reasonable decision tree is obtained,and appropriate analysis and the validity of discriminate on the warning results are done.The results provide appropriate advice and recommendations for tobacco production in Heilongjiang Province.