近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响

在回顾中国学者关于东北地区气候变化及对农业影响研究成果基础上,系统概括分析了近50年东北地区农业气候资源和灾害的变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响特征。近50年东北地区升温明显,生长季热量资源增加;农业可用水资源和光能资源呈不同程度减少趋势,且时空分布不均。霜冻害、低温冷害、寒潮、洪涝、冰雹等农业气象灾害减少,旱灾增加。东北地区气候变化对农业影响总体有利,表现为作物适宜生育期延长,发育进程加快,全生育期缩短;积温增加且积温带北移东扩明显,主栽作物适宜种植区域扩大;作物品种由中晚熟替换早中熟;作物种植格局的变化为玉米、水稻、马铃薯等喜温作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积减小。在水分为非限制因子的农区,作物气候生产潜力和产量为增加趋势。气候变化对农业影响的研究存在较大的不确定性,有必要针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展系统性研究。

Influence of climate change on agriculture in Northeast China in recent 50 years

This paper summarized the variation characteristics of agricultural climate resource,agro-meteorological disasters and the effect of climate change on agriculture in Northeast China in recent 50 years,based on the research results from Chinese scholars about climate change and its effect on agriculture in Northeast China.In Northeast China in recent 50 years,air temperature has risen obviously,thermal resources during the growing period of crops has increased;meanwhile,agricultural water resources and solar energy resources available have decreased in uneven spatial-temporal distribution.The agro-meteorological disasters such as frost,cool damage,cold wave,floods,and hail have decreased,the variation tendency of drought is increasing in contrary.Climate change in Northeast China is overall advantageous to agriculture.Development stage of crop has extended,development process of crop has accelerated,and the whole growth period shortened.Accumulated temperature generally has increased and its main belts expanded eastward and northward.For primary crop varieties,early-medium ripeness has been replaced by medium-late ripeness.The change of planting pattern showed that planting area of maize,rice and potato enlarged and correspondingly planting area of wheat planting area reduced.Crop yield and climate production potential were the increasing trend in the area without water limitation.There is greater uncertainty in the research about the influence of climate change to agriculture.It is necessary to study the agricultural climate change and its impact assessment deeply and systematically.