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| 鄱阳湖湿地区土地利用变化分析与预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 崔丽娟,陈文波,赵小汎,张曼胤.鄱阳湖湿地区土地利用变化分析与预测[J].福建林学院学报,2006,26(3):240-246. |
| 作者姓名： | 崔丽娟 陈文波 赵小汎 张曼胤 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,国家林业局林木培育重点实验室,北京,100091 2. 江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西,南昌,330045 3. 东北师范大学湿地生态与植被恢复重点实验室,吉林,长春,130024 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(30270275) |
| 摘 要： | 本文在遥感与地理信息系统支持下,建立了鄱阳湖湿地区新建县1996-2000年土地利用数据库,结合统计数据,运用马尔科夫与GM(1,1)2种预测方法对研究区未来的土地利用变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明2种预测方法的预测结果吻合度较高,研究区土地利用变化的总趋势为耕地持续减少,林地持续增加;建设用地面积加速增长,江滩湖滩减少速度放慢;湿地区域相对较稳定.结合研究区社会经济数据,文中还进一步分析了人口因素、经济发展水平、工业化与城镇化和地理位置与土地政策对土地变化趋势的影响.研究结果可为土地利用规划管理及政策的制定提供科学依据,为鄱阳湖湿地的管理提供背景资料和依据. |
| 关 键 词： | 马尔柯夫模型 灰色模型 土地利用变化预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-389X（2006）03-0240-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-15 |
Analyses and prediction of land use change in Poyang Lake wetland area |
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| CUI Li-juan,CHEN Wen-bo,ZHAO Xiao-fan,ZHANG Man-yin.Analyses and prediction of land use change in Poyang Lake wetland area[J].Journal of Fujian College of Forestry,2006,26(3):240-246. | |
| Authors: | CUI Li-juan CHEN Wen-bo ZHAO Xiao-fan ZHANG Man-yin |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of State Forestry Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry ; Beijing 100091, China; 2. College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanehang 330045, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China |
| Abstract: | Based on remote sensing and geographical information system,land use database of 1996 and 2000 in Xinjian County,the region of Poyang Lake wetland,were established.Two commonly used prediction models,Markov model based on transformation matrix and GM(1,1) based on Grey theory,respectively were applied to predict land use change direction in the future.The results indicated that coincidence degree between two prediction models was very high.Arable land and lake beach will decrease persistently.Forest land and construction land showed acceleration tendency.Grassland and water body will be level off in the future.The influential factors that affected land use change currently include population expansion,economy development,industrialization and urbanization,geographical position and land policy.The research results could provide scientific basis for land use planning and land use policy constitution in the region of Poyang Lake wetland. |
| Keywords: | Markov model gray model land use change prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |