| 应用逐步回归分析气象因素对杉木涩籽流行的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 林思祖,叶建春.应用逐步回归分析气象因素对杉木涩籽流行的影响[J].福建林学院学报,1992,12(3):317-321. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 林思祖 叶建春 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 福建省林学院杉木研究所，福建省林学院杉木研究所，福建省林学院杉木研究所，福建省林学院杉木研究所 宁德地区林业局，寿宁县林业局，永安市大湖乡 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用逐步回归分析47个影响杉木涩籽流行率的气象因素,并拟合预测模型。分析结果表明,本预测模型复相关系数达极显著水平,涩籽流行率与3月降雨量、7月相对湿度及8月降雨量呈正相关,与8月最高气温、3月日照时数、5月蒸发量、9月最高气温及7月蒸发量呈负相关。
|
| 关 键 词： | 杉木 涩籽 逐步回归 气象因素 |
Effect of Meteorological Factors on the Epidemic of Chinese Fir Sterile Seed Studied by Means of Stepwise Regression Analysis |
| |
| Lin Sizu,Huang Langzeng,Ye Jianchun,Fang Xingtian.Effect of Meteorological Factors on the Epidemic of Chinese Fir Sterile Seed Studied by Means of Stepwise Regression Analysis[J].Journal of Fujian College of Forestry,1992,12(3):317-321. |
| |
| Authors: | Lin Sizu Huang Langzeng Ye Jianchun Fang Xingtian |
| |
| Institution: | Fujian College of Forestry |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper, applying stepwise regression analysis to selecting the 47 monthly meterological factors effecting on the epidemic rate of Chinese-fir sterile seed, fits a model for forecasting the epidemics rate(Y) as follows:
Y =164.252-0.462X1-0.31lX2 + 0. 379X7+ 0.710X9-0.399X12 + 0.32X22
-0.552X25-0.189X28 (R=0.97 F=24.473**)
The result of the test of partial correlation showed that there were positive re_ lationships between the epidemic rate(Y) and the rainfall in March(X7), between Y and the relative moisture July(X22), and between Y and rainfall in August(X9); and that there were negative relationships between Y and sunshine time in March(X12),between Y and evaporation in May(X25) and in July-(X16) and between Y and highest air temperature in August(X1) aud in Septe-mber(X2). |
| |
| Keywords: | Chinese fir sterile seed meterological factor stepwise regression analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
