EC细网格模式2m气温预报产品在崂山地区的验证

选取2015—2019年青岛市崂山区10个气象自动站的日气温数据和EC细网格模式2 m气温预报产品,验证EC细网格模式2 m气温预报产品最低温度和最高温度在青岛崂山地区的准确率,同时分析崂山地区温度的时间、空间分布特征,对预报产品进行订正,在实际业务中进行推广,提高预报的准确率,做好公众气象服务。结果表明,气温存在年变化差异和季节内差异,同一种温度下,春季和夏季的区域分布比较类似,秋季和冬季的区域分布比较类似;崂山区内EC细网格24 h最低温度预报值偏高,最高温度预报值偏低,最低温度的预报总体准确率比最高温度的预报总体准确率要高,西部地区的预报准确率要高于东部地区的准确率;通过订正后,发现最低温度4个季节的预报准确率都在50%以上,最高温度订正后的准确率,除夏季59%以外,其他各季节均在75%以上。

Validation of EC Fine Grid Model for 2 Meters Air Temperature Prediction Product in Laoshan Area

The daily temperature data of 10 meteorological automatic stations in Laoshan District of Qingdao from 2015 to 2019 and the prediction products of EC fine grid model for 2 meters temperature were selected to verify the accuracy of the minimum and maximum temperature prediction products of EC fine grid model in Laoshan District of Qingdao.And the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the temperature in Laoshan area were analyzed,the forecast products were revised.The results showed that there were annual and intraseasonal differences in temperature.Under the same temperature,the regional distribution was similar in spring and summer,and similar in autumn and winter.In Laoshan area,the 24-hours minimum temperature forecast value of EC fine grid was on the high side,the 24-hours maximum temperature forecast value was on the low side,the overall accuracy of the forecast of the minimum temperature was higher than that of the maximum temperature,and the accuracy of the forecast of the western area was higher than that of the eastern area.After correction,it was found that the prediction accuracy of the four seasons of the minimum temperature was over 50%,and that of the maximum temperature was over 75%except 59%in summer.