2017年11—12月根河市3次寒潮过程的对比分析

利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品,应用天气学分析方法,对2017年11月13—15日、11月27—29日和12月9—11日根河市出现的3次典型寒潮天气过程进行对比分析。结果表明,3次过程均是在前期强烈升温的基础上,由强冷空气在西西伯利亚及贝加尔湖堆积并向南侵袭造成的;3次过程亚洲中高纬环流形势均表现为一脊一槽型,动力机制均为高空旋转低压槽与强锋区,促使寒潮暴发的流场均为低槽旋转型;冷空气暴发后,呼伦贝尔上空均由强盛的冷平流控制,地面冷高压均进入关键区并达到寒潮强度;但由于冷空气的强度、发展、移动路径不同,因此3次过程的降温幅度和对根河造成的影响也不同。在此基础上,总结出根河冬季寒潮天气的预报着眼点。

Comparative Analysis of Three Cold Waves in Genhe City from November to December 2017

Based on conventional weather data and numerical prediction products,the three typical cold wave weather processes in Genhe City on November 13-15,November 27-29 and December 9-11,2017 were compared and analyzed by using synoptic analysis method.The results showed that the three processes were all caused by the accumulation of strong cold air in West Siberia and Baikal Lake and the invasion to the South on the basis of strong warming in the early stage.The circulation pattern of middle and high latitudes in Asia in the three processes was one ridge and one trough type,and the dynamic mechanism was high-altitude rotating low trough and strong front area,which made the flow field of cold wave outbreak to be low trough rotating type.After the outbreak of cold air,the air over Hulunbuir was controlled by strong cold advection,and the surface cold high pressure entered the key area and reached the strength of cold wave.However,due to the different intensity,development and moving path of cold air,the cooling range and the impact on the river caused by the three processes were also different.On this basis,it summarized the forecast focus of winter cold wave weather in Genhe River.