基于生态足迹模型的重庆市涪陵区可持续发展研究

以生态足迹模型为基础,通过对重庆市涪陵区统计年鉴为主要数据来源的分析,对涪陵区1997-2006年的生态足迹进行计算,并且利用线性回归模型预测2007-2012年生态足迹和生态承载力的变化情况.结果表明:涪陵区1997-2006年的人均生态足迹由1997年的1.129 2 hm2/人增加到2006年1.304 8 hm2/人,而人均生态承载力基本维持在0.85 hm2/人左右,同期生态赤字2005年增长到0.542 4 hm2/人.从1997-2006年生态足迹和生态赤字虽有小幅度波动,但总体增长趋势明显.线性回归模型显示,2012年涪陵区人均生态足迹为1.602 6 hm2,人均生态承载力为0.701 4 hm2,人均生态赤字达到0.901 2 hm2,增长趋势明显.基于以上分析得出涪陵区现有发展模式受到挑战,提出减少生态赤字的措施.

Abstract：

Based on an "Ecological Footprint" (EF) model, the ecological footprint from 1997 to 2006 of Fuling District of Chongqing was analyzed, and the potential changes for the period 2007-2012 in ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Fuling were predicted, using linear regression models. The results demonstrated that the per capita ecological footprint increased from 1. 129 2 to 1. 304 8 hectare in Fuling during 1997-2006, the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained at the level of 0.85 hectare,and the ecological deficit reached 0. 542 4 hectare in 2005. The ecological footprint and the ecological deficit showed a general trend of increase in the past 10 years with slight fluctuations. The linear regression models showed that the EF and DF will continue to increase during 2007-2012 and per capita EF, per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit will be 1. 602 6, 0. 701 4 and 0. 901 2 hectare,respectively. Based on the above analysis, the paper offers some policy options for decreasing ED to tackle the challenges confronted by Fuling in its development.

Study of Sustainable Development in Fuling District of Chongqing Municipality Based on the Ecological Footprint Model