粮食主产区粮食生产与农业水资源压力脱钩关系研究

我国粮食生产与水资源短缺之间的矛盾日益突出,探讨粮食主产区粮食生产与农业水资源压力的关系尤为重要。本研究首先分析粮食主产区2004—2018年农业水资源压力的时空变化,运用Tapio脱钩模型对粮食生产与农业水资源压力的脱钩状态进行解析,其次结合“粮食生产水资源投入”这一指标与全局参比的超效率SBM-DEA模型测算了粮食主产区的粮食生产水资源利用效率,进一步分析了粮食生产水资源利用效率对农业水资源压力的影响。结果表明：粮食主产区农业水资源压力存在时空异质性,总体上北方粮食主产区的农业水资源压力大于南方,尤其是河北、河南、山东,其压力值始终大于1.5; 2004—2018年,粮食主产区粮食生产与农业水资源压力的脱钩状态具有阶段性特征,前期以扩张负脱钩为主,中期北方与南方粮食主产区分别以绝对脱钩和扩张负脱钩为主,后期强负脱钩类型的省份范围扩大;粮食主产区粮食生产水资源利用效率整体均值为0.719,仍有一定提升空间,且提高粮食生产水资源利用效率对缓解农业水资源压力具有显著作用。研究结果为理解粮食生产与农业水资源压力的关系变动提供了新的视角,强调了未来在促进粮食稳定生产的同时,应注重通过提高粮食生产水资源利用效率、优化粮食种植布局、提升农业基础设施水平等途径缓解农业水资源压力。

Decoupling relationship between grain production and agricultural water resources pressure in major grainproducing areas

The contradiction between China''s grain production and water resources shortage is becoming increasingly prominent, and it is particularly important to explore the relationship between grain production and agricultural water resources pressure in major grainproducing areas. This article analyzes temporal and spatial changes in China''s agricultural water resources pressure from 2004 to 2018 in major grain-producing areas and uses the Tapio decoupling model to reveal the decoupling state of grain production and water resources pressure. This article calculates the agricultural water efficiency by combining the index of "water resources input in grain production" and global super-efficiency SBM-DEA and analyzes the impact of agricultural water use efficiency on agricultural water resources pressure. The results showed that China''s agricultural water resources pressure is heterogeneous in temporal and spatial evolution in major grainproducing areas. The pressure on agricultural water resources in the major grain-producing areas in the north is greater than that in the south, especially in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong, where the value of pressure is always greater than 1.5. This study also found the decoupling state of grain production and water resources pressure in the major grain-producing areas has periodical character during the study period. This means expansion negative decoupling was the main relationship type in the early stage. The major grain producing areas in the north and south have mainly shown absolute decoupling and expansion negative decoupling, respectively, in the mid-term. The scope of provinces with strong negative decoupling types has expanded in the later stage. The overall average value of the grain water resource utilization efficiency in the main grain producing areas is 0.719, and there is still room for further improvement. Improving the water resource utilization efficiency has a significant effect on alleviating agricultural water resources pressure. The study provides a new perspective for understanding the relationship between grain production and agricultural water resources pressure and emphasizes that while promoting stable grain production in the future, it is necessary to take multiple approaches, such as improving water resources utilization efficiency in grain production, adjusting the layout of grain planting, and improving the level of agricultural infrastructure, to relieve agricultural water resources pressure.