| 中国粮食产量波动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 林燕,于冷.中国粮食产量波动分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2006,28(3):346-350. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林燕 于冷 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学管理学院,上海,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 将波动理论应用于粮食产量变化的分析,采用波动系数、波动周期等指标来研究粮食产量的波动规律,并将粮食产量的波动周期与国家粮食政策和自然灾害结合起来,定性分析了国家政策和自然灾害对粮食产量的影响,最后提出了稳定粮食产量的政策建议:利用国际市场的贸易机制、保持粮食政策的持续性和稳定性、健全粮食生产预警机制等。
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| 关 键 词： | 波动 粮食产量 周期 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5684（2006）03-0346-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-202006-04-20 |
A Study on the Fluctuation of China's Grain Yield |
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| LIN Yan,YU Leng.A Study on the Fluctuation of China''''s Grain Yield[J].Journal of Jilin Agricultural University,2006,28(3):346-350. |
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| Authors: | LIN Yan YU Leng |
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| Institution: | School of Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies fluctuation theory into the study of the changes of grain yield,taking fluctuation coefficient and fluctuation cycle as two indexes in studying the fluctuation rules of grain yield.It connects the fluctuation cycles of grain yield with change periods of national grain policy and natural disasters,and makes qualitative analyses of the influence of national policy and natural disasters on grain yield.Suggestions are put forward,such as employing the international trade mechanism,keeping the stability and sustainability of grain policy and improving the contingency mechanism of grain yield. |
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| Keywords: | fluctuation grain yield cycle |
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