烟草野火病“天气促病指数”表解模型的建立

在对野火病各流行环节定量研究的基础上，提出了可以进行烟草野火病短期预测的“天气促病指数表解模型”。这种模型是建立在对植物病原细菌从植物体内经雨露浸出到植物体表，再进一步侵染新的寄主植物健康部位这一过程的逼真模拟基础上，所以它具有机理模型的特点和优点，这种模型虽不能进行数值预测，但可以进行较为的病情发展趋势，而且不需要计算机，只要查表就可以进行预测的有关运算，是一种较有应用潜力的模型。

Establishment of the Tabular Model of Weather Promoting Disease Index (PDI) for Tobacco Wildfire

Based on the quantitative studies on the epidemic stages of wildfire, a tabular model of weather promoting disease index(PDI) was established for short-term forecast. This model was set up on the basis of imitating in a lifelike way the process in which plant bacteria were soaked out by rain and dew from in vivo to in vitro and infect new healthy sites of host again. This results in its possessing the characteristics and advantages of a mechanism model. Although it is not intended for numerical forecast, it is appropriate for forecasting rather accurately disease developing tendency. To reach this goal, one only needs to do the calculation concerned with the forecast by consulting the model without using a computer. Therefore it has great potentiality in application.