中国的农村居民消费与收入协整分析

中国农村居民消费和收入之间的关系．反映了中国农村经济的基本特征。增加农民收入是提高农民消费的根本途径。现运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型理论．分析我国农村居民人均消费水平和农村居民人均纯收入的关系．力图探寻影响农村消费的关键性因素。分析结果表明：我国农村居民人均消费水平和农村居民人均纯收入之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系．从短期来看，两者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的力度较大．农村居民人均纯收入是农村居民人均消费水平的格兰杰原因。它们之间具有因果关系。并基于研究结论．提出有针对性的政策建议。

China's Rural Household Consumption and Income:a Cointegration Analysis

The relationship between income and consumption of Chinese rural residents reflects the basic characteristics of China＇s rural economy. Increasing the income of farmers is the fundamental way to improve rural consumption. The relationship between the per capita income and the level of per capita consumption of rural residents were analyzed using cointegration analysis method and error correction model in an effort to explore the key factors affecting rural consumption. The results showed that the per capita consumption level and per capita net income of rural residents was in a equilibrium relationship in long-term. Per capita net income of rural residents was the Granger cause of per capita consumption level of rural residents. Suggestions are given accordingly based on the research findings.