1999—2018年四川省烟叶播种面积的年际动态分析

为明确四川省烟叶播种面积的年际动态规律和驱动因子,统计分析了1999—2018年四川省烟叶和烤烟的播种面积和产量;并从四川省人均GDP、第一产业增加值、税收收入等3个宏观经济指标,粮食、油料、棉花、麻类和糖料作物播种面积等5个农田土地利用指标中,筛选出了显著影响烟叶播种面积的指标体系。结果发现：（1）1999—2018年四川烟叶种植面积和产量大体呈现出先增加后降低的趋势。（2）1999—2018年烤烟播种面积占比呈上升趋势,晾晒烟播种面积占比逐年下降。（3）1999—2005年四川烟叶单位面积产量不断提升,之后一直维持在2 t/hm²的水平。（4）烟叶播种面积与第一产业增加值、税收收入呈正相关,而与棉花播种面积、糖料作物播种面积呈负相关。（5）采用逐步回归分析得到AIC最低的回归方程为S_{烤烟播种面积}=-564.100+0.005×GDP_人均+0.169×S_{农作物总播种面积}-0.129×S_{粮食播种面积}+0.164×S_{油料播种面积}+5.166×S_{麻类播种面积}-4.469×S_{糖料播种面积}-0.178×S_{蔬菜播种面积}-0.616×S_茶园面积-0.323×S_果园面积。上述研究结果表明,未来四川省烟叶播种面积将综合受到经济发展、作物播种结构等多方因素影响。

Interannual Dynamics of Tobacco Planting Area in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018

To clarify the interannual dynamics and driving factors of tobacco planting area in Sichuan Province, the planting area and yield of tobacco and flue-cured tobacco in Sichuan from 1999 to 2018 were statistically analyzed. Three macroeconomic indicators, including per capita GDP, added value of the primary industry and tax revenue, and five farmland land use indicators, including grain, oil, cotton, bast fiber and sugar crop planting area, were selected to construct the index system that significantly affect tobacco planting area. The results showed that: (1) from 1999 to 2018, the planting area and yield of tobacco in Sichuan increased at first and then decreased; (2) from 1999 to 2018, the proportion of planting area of flue-cured tobacco increased, while that of air-cured tobacco decreased year by year; (3) from 1999 to 2005, the yield of tobacco leaf per unit area in Sichuan increased continuously, and then maintained above the level of 2 t/hm²; (4) the planting area of tobacco was positively correlated with the added value of primary industry and tax revenue, and had a negative correlation with cotton planting area and sugar crop planting area; (5) the regression equation with the lowest AIC in the range of significant difference was obtained by using stepwise regression analysis: S_{tobacco sown area}= -564.100+ 0.005×GDP _{per capita} + 0.169×S_{total sown area of crops}- 0.129×S_{grain sown area} + 0.164×S_{oil sown area}+ 5.166×S_{bast fiber crops sown area}- 4.469×S_{sugar sown area}- 0.178×S_{vegetable sown area}- 0.616×S_{tea garden area}- 0.323×S_{orchard area}. The results suggest that the tobacco planting area in Sichuan will be affected by economic development, crop planting structure and other factors.