设施灌溉猕猴桃成熟期预报方法研究

根据收集到的猕猴桃果实生长后期采集的猕猴桃可溶性固形物含量检测数据资料,使用前期气象资料设计并计算猕猴桃成熟熵。选取猕猴桃当年末花期次日至检测日前一日≥0℃积温和累计日照时数作为计算猕猴桃成熟熵的气象因子,按其与猕猴桃可固含量的回归系数权重加权求和,得到成熟熵指数(H)的计算公式为：H=0.28Σ_T+0.72Σ_S,对猕猴桃成熟熵与可溶性固形物检测含量进行回归分析,建立可溶性固形物检测含量与猕猴桃成熟熵回归方程：G=-3.9875+0.0060H。根据回归方程计算得到的可溶性固形物含量值(G)与检测值最小误差0.03%,最大误差-0.96%,平均误差0.083%。参照猕猴桃成熟要求可溶性固形物含量≥8.0%标准,计算得到猕猴桃所需成熟熵为1949.06,预报2017—2019年猕猴桃成熟期与实况误差-1~2天,平均误差0.7天（偏迟）。运用本方法可根据气象因子计算当期猕猴桃可溶性固形物含量,结合后期气象要素预报,可提前计算预报猕猴桃成熟期,籍此可以摆脱对折光分析检测仪器的依赖,又能提前预报猕猴桃成熟期和上市期,为避免早采而造成对猕猴桃品牌形象的损害提供科学依据。

Forecasting Method of Kiwifruit Ripening Period Under Facility Irrigation

Based on the data of soluble solid content of kiwifruit collected in the later period of kiwifruit growth, the maturity entropy of kiwifruit was designed and calculated by using the meteorological data in the earlier period. The accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and the accumulated sunshine time from the second day of the end flowering period to the day before the test date were selected as the meteorological factors to calculate the entropy of kiwifruit ripening, the formula for calculating the maturity entropy index (H) was obtained as: H=0.28Σ_T+0.72Σ_S, to establish the regression equation between the content of soluble solid and the entropy of kiwifruit ripening: G=-3.9875+0.0060H. According to the regression equation, the minimum error was 0.03%, the maximum error was -0.96%, and the average error was 0.083%. According to the requirement of kiwifruit ripeness for soluble solid content ≥8.0%, the maturity entropy of kiwifruit was calculated to be 1949.06, and the error of kiwifruit ripeness prediction was -1~2 days in 2017-2019, with an average error of 0.7 days (delayed) . This method can be used to calculate the soluble solid content of kiwifruit in the current period according to the meteorological factors. Combined with the forecast of the later meteorological elements, the ripening period of kiwifruit could be calculated and predicted in advance, it could also forecast the ripening period and the marketing period of kiwifruit in advance, and avoid the damage to the brand image of kiwifruit caused by early harvest.