山东省小麦生产现状的实证分析

为了推进现代高效农业发展，指导山东省小麦生产，采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法，对山东小麦的总产量、单位面积产量、播种面积、近30年的变化趋势、空间布局及其科技支撑要素进行了分析与探讨。结果表明，由于受区域布局和科学技术投入的影响，山东省小麦播种面积虽然呈逐渐减少趋势，但是单产水平的提高使得总产变化不大。由此得出结论，合理调整山东省小麦种植的空间布局，严格控制并稳定播种面积，逐步加大农业科技投入，提高小麦单产水平，从根本上保障山东省小麦安全生产。

The Empirical Analysis on the Current Situation of Wheat Production in Shandong Province

In order to promote modern agriculture development of Shandong Province and guide the wheat production, the author analyzed and discussed in the paper for the total production of wheat, the yield of per unit area, planting area, change trend of recent 30 years, spatial distribution and its science and technology supporting elements, by adopting the research methods of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. The results showed that, due to the influence of spatial distribution and the investment of science and technology, although the wheat planting area was gradually reducing, the total production changed a little for much of these productivity gains. So it was concluded that the spatial distribution should be made the proper adjustments, planting area should be stabilized at a certain level, investment in agricultural science and technology should be further increased, single production level of wheat should be gradually raised, and so the wheat safety in Shandong would indeed be fulfilled.