冬小麦单产与气象因素关系研究——以山东省微山县为例

为了探讨山东微山县冬小麦生长期间的降水量、光照、气温等气象因素对其单产的影响系数;对气象因素变量间的相关性进行处理,运用正交多项式方法求解气象产量的Fisher积分回归模型,求出了气象因素对产量的影响系数。结果发现,苗期降雨有利于冬小麦单产增加,降水量每增加1 mm,单产增加1.65~2.25 kg/hm2;较高的气温有利于单产增加,每增加1℃,单产增加272.4 kg/hm2;越冬期：优良的光照有利于高产,光照每增加1 h,单产增加135.3 kg/hm2至166.5 kg/hm2;返青拔节期：3、4月的降水有利于单产的增加,每增加1 mm,单产就增加4.95 kg/hm2和4.2 kg/hm2。通过气象要素的产量系数,解释了气象要素如何影响冬小麦单产,这也为未来进行冬小麦产量预报与调控提供了理论基础。

The Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Winter Wheat Yield——the Case Study from Weishan County, Shandong Province

In this paper, using winter wheat yield and meteorological data during 1981-2009 in the Weishan County, Shandong Province, the purpose is to study the impact of meteorological factors（rainfall, sunshine,temperature） on yield. Firstly, analyzing meteorological data simply, and checking the relationship between meteorological factors, it was found that there was strong negative correlation between rainfall and sunshine;the authors built the meteorological conception model, and dealt with the relationship between variables, using the orthogonal polynomial method to solve the Fisher integral regression model. The results showed that,rainfall was conducive to increase the yield in the future, the yield increased by 1.65 kg/hm2to 2.25 kg/hm2if the rainfall increased 1 mm more than in the normal month. Higher temperature was beneficial to the yield, the yield increased by 272.4 kg/hm2if the temperature increased 1℃ higher. In winter period, lighting was conducive to the yield; the yield increased by 135.3 kg/hm2to 166.5 kg/hm2if the lighting increased 1 hourmore. During the turning green period and jointing stage, rainfall in March and April promotes the yield increasing, the yield increased by 4.95 kg/hm2and 4.2 kg/hm2if the rainfall increased 1 mm. In this paper, the meteorological yield coefficient could explain how meteorological factors influence the yield of winter wheat.This laid the foundation of methodology for the forecasting winter wheat yield in the future.