1957—2014年山东省龙口市温度和降水变化特征

为了充分利用龙口市的气候资源,促进当地农业和旅游业的可持续发展,利用线性倾向估计、M-K突变分析和滑动平均法等方法,对龙口市1957—2014年的温度和降水量进行变化特征分析.结果表明:龙口市58年来的温度均值为12.3℃,年降水量均值是605.0 mm;年气温变化表现为上升状态,气候倾向率为0.5℃/10 a,在四季温度变化中,夏季增温最小,春季增温最大;年降水量下降趋势显著,以8.96 mm/10 a的速率线性降低,四季降水变化中,冬季下降幅度最小,秋季最大;在1950s—1970s期间,气温开始平稳降低,而1980s至今气温明显增长;降水量的年代际变化呈"增多—减少—增多"的变化规律,其中1970s—1980s呈减少规律;龙口市近58年的气温和降水的均值分别于1989年和1979年出现突变.该研究获得了龙口市气候变化规律的最新理论.

Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation of Longkou from 1957 to 2014

To make full use of the climate resources of Longkou and promote the sustainable development of local agriculture and tourism, the authors studied the climate change characteristics of Longkou in Shandong. The temperature and precipitation of Longkou from 1957 to 2014 were analyzed by linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and sliding average method. The results showed that:the mean temperature of Longkou was 12.3℃and the annual precipitation was 605.0 mm;the air temperature change was upwards with the climate tendency of 0.5℃/10 a; in terms of seasons, the temperature in summer increased slightly, while the temperature in spring increased the most; the annual precipitation decreased dramatically with 8.96 mm/10 a; the precipitation change in the four seasons was the smallest in winter and the largest in autumn;from the 1950s and the 1970s, the air temperature change showed a steady decline, the temperature increased significantly since the 1980s; in contrast, the precipitation witnessed a fluctuation of increase-decrease-increase and there was a drop between the 1970s and the 1980s;the mutation of mean temperature and precipitation appeared in 1989 and 1979, respectively. The study obtains the latest rule of climate change in Longkou.