南丰县气候变化对甲鱼养殖的影响与建议

选用南丰国家气象观测一级站1957—2016 年大气探测资料，南丰县太和镇2011—2016 年甲鱼养殖观察资料，使用线性气候倾向率、相关分析等方法，分析了与甲鱼养殖气象条件相关的气候要素变化趋势。结果表明，南丰县稳定通过15、20、25℃初终日期间隔天数和积温及6 月平均最低气温、10 月极端最低气温线性增加，甲鱼生长、产卵期延长，生长速度增快，有利提高甲鱼养殖效益。相关气候因子21世纪的年代均值均明显大于20 世纪的年代均值，更说明南丰气候变化对甲鱼养殖有利，南丰甲鱼养殖可持续发展。南丰甲鱼宜4 月开始喂养，6—9 月销售种蛋、孵化种苗，11 月上旬之后出售种鳖。由于南丰县地形复杂，光、温、水资源时空分布不均，为确保南丰甲鱼养殖效益，建议选择南丰县中部海拔200 m以下低丘陵热量资源丰富的区域养殖。

Influence of Climate Change on Soft-shelled Turtle Breeding in Nanfeng County and Corresponding Suggestions

On the basis of the atmospheric sounding data from 1957 to 2016 and soft-shelled turtle breeding data from 2011 to 2016 in Nanfeng County, climatic elements relating with soft-shelled turtle breeding were analyzed with linear climatic tendency rate and correlation analysis. The results showed that the intervals between the initial and final days with temperature higher than 15, 20, 25℃, accumulated temperature, the average lowest temperature in June, and the lowest temperature in October increased, which increased the periods for soft-shelled turtle growth and oviposition, accelerated its growth, thus were favorable to improvement of breeding benefit. The related climatic factors in the 2000s were obviously higher than those in the 1900s, which indicated that the climate change was more favorable to soft-shelled turtle breeding and its sustainable development in Nanfeng County. Because of the complex terrain as well as the heterogeneous distribution of light, temperature and water resources we suggested to select the areas with abundant heat resources and below elevation of 200 m in the middle of Nanfeng County. The breeding of soft-shelled turtle should start in April, egg sold and hatching should be from June to September, and the soft-shelled turtles should be sold after early November.