近50年安徽省油菜涝渍灾害时空变化分析

涝渍是影响油菜产量与质量的主要农业气象灾害之一。本研究利用行业标准(QX/T 107—2009)中油菜涝渍等级指标,分析了1961—2010年安徽省油菜涝渍时空变化特征。结果表明:时间上,油菜开花期和抽薹期涝渍指数值最大,此时期涝渍发生的次数占全生育期的70%~80%。近50年来,抽薹期涝渍指数值呈上升趋势,灌浆期呈下降趋势。从空间上看,油菜不同生育期涝渍指数均呈现自北向南递增的规律。安徽省涝渍害主要发生在江淮及其以南地区,江淮区涝渍发生的几率为5~6年1遇,沿江区油菜涝渍害为2年1遇,其中轻度涝渍发生的几率是3~4年1遇,中度涝渍的几率是5~6年1遇,重度涝渍的几率是15~16年1遇。皖南山区涝渍害为1~2年1遇,其中轻度和中度涝渍的几率均是3年1遇,重度涝渍的几率是5年1遇。

Spatial-temporal Variations of Waterlogging Disaster for Rape in Anhui Province in Recent 50 Years

Waterlogging as one of the main agrometeorological disaster effect the yield and quality of rape. In this paper, the spatial-temporal features of waterlogging for rape in Anhui Province was analyzed from 1961 to 2010 based on the industrial standard(QX/T 107-2009). The result showed that the waterlogging index gets the maximum value in blossom-bolting stage, when about 70%~80% waterlogging occurred. The index had a rising trend in bolting stage while decreased in filling stage; In the space, the value of waterlogging indexes increased regularity from north to south. The waterlogging occurred mainly in the south of Huai River Valley. The appearance of rape waterlogging is on a 5~6 years cycle in Jianghuai region.In Yanjiang region, the appearance of waterlogging is on a 2 years cycle,among them, mild waterlogging on a 3~4 years cycle, moderate waterlogging on a 5~6 years cycle, severe waterlogging on a 15~16 years cycle. In Anhui South region the appearance of waterlogging is on a 1~2years cycle, among them, mild and moderate waterlogging on a 3 years cycle, severe waterlogging on a 5 years cycle.