基于SWAT模型的北江流域气候变化的水文响应

目的]建立SWAT分布式水文模型,模拟分析气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。方法]以北江流域为研究对象,运用分布式水文模型SWAT对流域径流进行模拟,以流域出口石角站1961～1980年月流量数据对模型参数进行率定,用1981～1990年月流量数据对模型参数进行了验证。设置15种气候变化情景,利用率定好的SWAT模型模拟了未来气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。结果]SWAT模型模拟精度较高,可用于北江流域径流模拟。在降水量不变的情况下,温度升高将会使蒸发量增大,径流深减小;气温保持不变时,降水量增加会使蒸发量和径流深有所增加。结论]该研究可为北江流域水资源管理提供参考依据。

Hydrologic Response of the Climatic Change Based on SWAT Model in Beijiang River Basin

Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin.Method] Beijiang River basin as research object,SWAT model was used to simulate runoff.Monthly flow rate in Shizui station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter,and monthly flow rate from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify.Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios,SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin.Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high and could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin.Under the situation of invariable rainfall,temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased,and runoff depth decreased.When temperature unchanged,rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat.Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water resource management in Beijiang River basin.