商丘市气候变化对小麦生长发育及产量的影响

利用商丘市1964—2010年气象资料和1985—2010年商丘市农林科学院区试记录,确定各年型适宜播种期、气象学越冬期、生产越冬期、返青期、拔节期、抽穗期和成熟期,依据1985—2010年的小麦产量统计结果,利用多元回归分析方法,分析了小麦气候产量和光、温、水与小麦产量的相关性。结果表明,随着气温的升高,日照时数的减少,该区小麦播种期、越冬期、成熟期呈推迟趋势,返青期、拔节期和抽穗期呈提前趋势,致使小麦全生育期和越冬期缩短、灌浆期延长,产量受气候的影响逐渐加重。小麦实际产量与生育期活动积温呈极显著正相关,与日照时数、降水量呈负相关,其中与日照时数相关性显著;高温和干旱胁迫均抑制了籽粒灌浆速率,使最大灌浆速率出现时间提前,灌浆持续期缩短,导致籽粒干物质积累量下降,粒重降低;其中积温是影响小麦产量的主导因子。

Influence of Climate Change on the Growth and Yield of Wheat in Shangqiu City

Using the meteorological data in Shangqiu City from 1964 to 2010 and the district trial records of Shangqiu Academy of Agriculture and Forestry during 1985-2010,the suitable sowing period,the winter beginning in meteorology,the winter beginning of production,returning green stage,jointing stage,heading stage and mature stage were determined.Based on the statistics of wheat yield from 1985 to 2010,the correlation between wheat climatic yield and sunshine,temperature,rainfall and wheat yield was analyzed by multivariate regression analysis.The research showed that with the increase of temperature and decrease of sunshine hours,the sowing period,wintering period and mature stage of wheat in this area were delayed,and the returning green stage,jointing stage and heading stage of wheat showed a premature trend,resulting in the shortening of the whole growth period and wintering period of wheat,the filling stage was prolonged,and the yield was gradually aggravated by the climate.The actual yield of wheat was extremely significantly and positively correlated with the accumulated temperature during the growth period and negatively correlated with the sunshine hours and precipitation,among them,the correlation with sunshine hours was significant.Under high temperature and drought stress,the grain filling rate was inhibited,the maximum filling rate appeared ahead of time,and the duration of grain filling shortened,which led to the decrease of grain dry matter accumulation and grain weight.The accumulated temperature was the dominant factor affecting wheat yield.