北方农业气象灾害的时空分布特征研究

目的]研究北方农业气象灾害发生的时空分布特征。方法]基于北方各省区多年的统计数据,采用地学统计以及GIS相结合的方法,对北方各地区多年的干旱、洪涝、冰冻、风雹等主要农业气象灾害数据进行了时空格局的分析,阐述了近年来我国北方地区各种农业气象灾害发生的频率和动态变化的空间分布特征。结果]北方不同的农业气象灾害具有明显的时空分布特征,20世纪80年代受干旱和风雹影响较大,90年代以洪涝灾害为主,2000—2010年则以洪涝和低温冷冻为主;从整体受灾率和成灾率上讲,北方各地区从大到小依次为华北区、东北区、西北区。结论]该研究为北方各地区农业气象灾害预警机制的建立和完善提供依据。

Study on Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Northern China

Objective] The research aimed to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters occurred in northern China.Method]Based on the statistics of many provinces and regions in north of China for many years,this paper ana-lyzed the temporal and spatial patterns of major agricultural meteorological disasters such as drought,floods,freezing and hailstorms in north-ern China for many years by the combination of geoscience statistics and GIS.The spatial distribution characteristics of frequency and dynamic changes of agricultural meteorological disasters in northern China in recent years were expounded.Result]Different agricultural meteorological disasters in northern China had obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. In the 1980s, they were greatly affected by drought and hailstorms;In the 1990s,floods disaster were dominant;Floods and low temperature freezing were dominant during 2000-2010.From the overall disaster rate and hazard rate,the northern regions in descending order followed by northern, northeast, northwest in China.Conclu-sion]This study provides the basis for the establishment and improvement of the early warning mechanism of agricultural meteorological disas-ters in various regions of Northern China.