朝阳地区热量资源变化趋势及对农业生产的影响

［目的］分析掌握朝阳地区热量资源变化趋势，为农业结构调整和充分利用热量资源提供依据。［方法］应用常规数理统计方法，一元线性拟合渐近线在Excel程序中解析出热量资源要素增加幅度。［结果］朝阳地区3个气候区变暖幅度存在差异，50年南部地区年平均气温升高1.9 ℃，≥10 ℃积温增加330 ℃ 西部地区年平均气温升高1.6 ℃，≥10 ℃积温增加210 ℃ 北部地区年平均气温升高0.8 ℃，≥10 ℃积温增加200 ℃。［结论］气温升高、气候变暖对农业气象资源和灾害存在着不同的影响，对农业生产的影响利弊共存。

Chaoyang District Heat Resources Trend Changes and Effect on Agricultural Production

Objective]Chaoyang District heat resources trend changes were analyzed,which provided basis for the agricultural structure adjustment,heat resources fully utilization.Method] Elements increase range of heat resources resolved by method of conventional mathematical statistics at Escel process of linear fitting asymptote.Result] Three climate zones warming of Chaoyang District rate existed differences,average temperature of 50 years in the southern region increased 1.9℃,≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased 330℃;western region temperature increased 1.6℃,accumulated temperature increased 210℃;northern region temperature increased 0.8℃,accumulated temperature increased 200℃. Conclusion] Temperature increase,climate warming on the resources and agro-meteorological disasters,which had different effects on agricultural production advantages and disadvantages of co-existence.