粮食产量变化及影响因素分析——以山东省东营市为例

分析了山东省东营市1983~2002年粮食产量变化情况。通过选取气温、降水量、蒸发量、粮食播种面积、农业机械动力、化肥施用量、农业人口等7个因子,分别采用单因子关联分析和多因子PCA分析,揭示了东营市影响粮食产量变化因素的内在联系。单因子分析表明:气温、播种面积、化肥用量、机械动力、农业人口等5个因子与粮食产量的关联程度极显著(在0.01水平),关联系数>0.586。PCA分析表明,气温、化肥用量、机械动力及农业人口作为第一主分量对粮食产量影响较大,占有分析因子贡献率的50.99%,降水量、蒸发量与播种面积作为第二主分量对粮食产量影响较大,占有分析因子贡献率的21.18%。第三主分量表现在播种面积,贡献率为12.93%。

Analysis of Grain Yield Variation and its Affecting Factors in Dongying City

The grain yield from 1983 to 2002 in Dongying city was analyzed in the paper.Seven factors such as temperature,precipitation,evaporation,the area of grain,mechanical power,fertilizer and the population of agriculture affecting grain yield were analyzed with the method of association and principal component analysis(PCA).The results showed that: there was significant correlation(at 0.01 level) between the temperature,the area of grain,mechanical power,fertilizer,the population of agriculture and the grain yield,respectively.Their association coefficients were more than 0.586.The PCA results showed that: there were three primary impact factors affecting the grain yield and they respectively were the temperature,mechanical power and the fertilizer as the first impact factor with cumulative proportion reached to 50.99%;the precipitation,evaporation and the area of grain as the secondary impact factor with cumulative proportion reached to 21.18%;and the area of grain as the third impact factor with cumulative proportion reached to 12.93%.