马尾松毛虫发生量时空回归预测的研究

目的]为控制马尾松毛虫的危害提供理论依据。方法]以1983年9月～1989年9月浙江省仙居县虫情调查资料和气象资料为研究对象，考察各调查点马尾松毛虫有虫面积随气象因子及时间、空间的动态变化，建立马尾松毛虫发生量的时空回归预测模型，并用所建立模型对1989年3代马尾松毛虫有虫面积进行预报检验。结果]共建立了1个线性、8个非线性马尾松毛虫发生量时空回归预测模型。1989年3代马尾松毛虫实际危害村数及有虫面积分别为141、143、138村和4533．1、4181．3、5166．0hm^2，9个模型预报的3代马尾松毛虫的发生村数均为193村，线性模型预报的3代马尾松毛虫的发生面积分别为3978．5、4159．5、3427．5hm^2，非线性模型预报的各测报点3代马尾松毛虫的发生面积分别与实际最大相差71．6868、99．8359、119．9478hm^2。结论]所建立模型对马尾松毛虫有虫面积的预报准确率均为66．7％。

Study of Space-time Regression Prediction on Occurrence Quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker

Objective] The study was to provide the theoretical basis for controlling the damage of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker.Method] With pest investigation data and meteorological data of Xianju Country Zhejiang Province in 1 983.9～1 989.9 as the researched object,the dynamic variation of insect appearance areas of D.punctatus with the change of meteorological factors,time and spatial in each investigation point was studied.,and then the space-time regression prediction model on occurrence quantity of D.punctatus was established.The insect appearance areas of 3 generation D.punctatus in 1989 was forecasted and tested with the established model.Result] Totally 1 linear and 8 nonlinear space-time regression prediction models on occurrence quantity of D.punctatus were established.The actual villages that damaged by 3 generation D.punctatus and the insect appearance areas were 141,143,138 and 4 533.1,4 181.3,5 166.0 hm2 resp.and the villages that damaged by 3 generation D.punctatus predicted by 9 models were 193,and the insect appearance areas predicted by linear model were 3 978.5,4 159.5,3 427.5 hm2 resp.the prediction results of nonlinear model on insect appearance areas of 3 generation D.punctatus were 71.686 8,99.835 9,119.947 8 hm2 different with the actual.Conclusion] The prediction accuracy of the established models on insect appearance areas of D.punctatus were all 66.7%.