小麦条锈病气象等级预测方法研究

目的]建立通过气象因子预测小麦条锈病发生面积的模型。方法]在统计河南省条锈病发生轻重年份的基础上,结合相应年份对应时段的气象资料,采用灰色关联分析、模糊数学等方法,按时间顺序建立了冬前、3月上旬4、月上旬和5月中旬4个条锈病促病指数预测模型。根据促病指数计算原理,采用等差分布方法得出条锈病发生程度预测标准,并进行了历史资料检验及2006年发生程度预测。结果]成功建立了对应于气象条件的小麦锈病发生模型。检验结果表明,冬前及3月上旬预测结果相比实际值偏重,4月上旬及5月中旬预测结果与实际值较为吻合。结论]该研究结果将对河南省小麦条锈病的预防起到积极作用。

Forecast Model for Occurrence Degree of Wheat Stripe Rust Using Meteorological Data

Objective] The aim of this study is to establish the model for forecasting wheat stripe rust occurrence condition using meteorological factors.Method] Based on the data of wheat stripe rust occurrence degrees of previous years and the meteorological data at corresponding periods,the methods of grey correlation analysis and fuzzy mathematics were employed to establish the forecast model for four pathogenesis indices according to the time sequence before winter,early Mar.,early Apr.and middle May.Thus,the criterion for forecasting the occurrence degree of wheat stripe rust was obtained based on the distribution method of arithmetic progression.Result] The model corresponding to meteorological conditions for forecasting wheat stripe rust was successfully established.According to the verification,the forecasting results before winter and in Early Mar.are more severer than the real occurrence condition,while the forecasting results in Early Apr.and Middle May are basically consistent with real values.Conclusion] The results of the present study may avail the control of wheat stripe rust in Henan Province.