周口市农业气候资源变化及其利弊分析

利用线性回归和距平分析方法,分析了周口市近40年农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明,年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.46℃/10a,对小麦、玉米生长影响是利大于弊;日照呈明显的下降趋势,气候倾向率为-109.89 h/10a,日照减少对小麦、玉米关键生长时期有不利影响;降水量没有显著变化,但年、月降水量年际之间变幅较大,易造成旱、涝灾害的发生。针对以上变化,初步提出小麦、玉米生产的区域性应对措施。

Agricultural Climate Resources Change and Analysis of Its Advantages and Disadvantages in Zhoukou

The variation features of the agricultural climate resources in Zhoukou in recent 40 years have been analyzed by means of linear regression and anomaly analysis.The results showed that the annual average temperature is increasing at a climate rate of 0.46 ℃/10a,which produces more good than harm to the wheat and maize growth.Sunshine hours are significantly decreasing at the climate rate of-109.89 hours/10a,which produces adverse impact on wheat and maize growth in the critical growth period.Precipitation is not changing significantly,but the yearly and monthly inter-annual precipitation changes have been aggravated,which will be Vulnerable to drought and floods.According to the changes,the coping measures to regional wheat and maize production were initially proposed.