近50年青州市气温变化特征分析

利用1961—2010年青州市气温观测资料,采用线性回归、M-K突变检验等方法,分析近50年来该市年、季、月平均气温以及平均最高、最低气温的变化特征。结果表明,1961—2010年青州市平均气温呈上升趋势,其气候变化倾向率为0.35℃/10 a,近50年年平均气温上升约1.8℃;四季平均气温均呈增温趋势,其中冬季气温增温趋势最为明显,增温率大小依次为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季;年平均气温的突变年是1989年。近50年青州市平均最高气温20世纪60年代为一个高值区,70年代为近50年来最低值,自70年代以来气温逐渐回升,在90年代达到最高值;平均最低气温20世纪60年代为最冷期,自70年代以来气温快速回升,在90年代达到最高值。

Analysis on Change Characteristics of Temperature in Qingzhou City in Recent 50 Years

Using the temperature observation data of Qingzhou City during 1961-2010,the change characteristics of annual,season, monthly average temperature and average maximum, minimum temperature in the past 50 years were analyzed by linear regression and M-K mutation test.The results showed that the average temperature of Qingzhou City was increasing from 1961 to 2010, and the climate change tendency was 0.35 ℃/10 a, and the average annual temperature rise of about 1.8 ℃ in recent 50 years.The average temperature of the four seasons was increasing trend, in which the winter temperature warming trend was most obvious, the temperature increase rate was winter, spring, autumn and summer.The mutation year of the annual average temperature was 1989.In the past 50 years, the average maximum temperature in Qingzhou City had been the highest value in the 1960s, the 1970s was the lowest value,and the temperature had gradually recovered since the 1970s, reaching the highest value in the 1990s.The average minimum temperature in the 1960s was the coldest period, since the 1970s, the temperature had risen rapidly, reaching the highest level in the 1990s.