霜冻精细化预报模型

通过对榆社基准气候站实测2013年1月1日—12月31日的逐日最低气温、地面最低温度、草面最低温度以及榆社各区域站每日最低气温的分析,结合收集到的霜冻资料,建立区域站与本站的气温关系以及区域站气温与地表温度的关系,形成区域站地表温度与本站最低气温预报值的关系,实现通过本站最低气温来预报区域站最低地温,建立霜冻精细化预报模型。通过2014—2016年实测霜冻数据进行验证,得出:本站最低气温预报的准确度越高,霜冻精细化预报模型预报准确率越高,预报准确率超过90%。当本站最低气温6℃时,区域站范围内可能出现霜冻;当本站最低气温2℃时,本站可能出现霜冻。

Refinement Prediction Model of Frost

The daily minimum temperature, minimum ground temperature, minimum grass surface temperature of Yushe benchmark weather stations and daily minimum temperature of automatic station in Yushe township were collected from January 1 to December 31, 2013.Combined with the history frost data, the relationship between the temperature of the regional station and the surface temperature was established, meanwhile the relationship between the surface temperature of the regional station and the minimum temperature forecast value of the station was established, and the minimum ground temperature of regional station was predicted by the minimum temperature of the station.As a result, the refinement prediction model of frost was built.Then the model was applied and verified with the frost data during 2014-2016.The result showed that: the higher the accuracy of the minimum temperature forecast, the higher the accuracy of the forecasting model of refinement prediction model of frost,the accuracy rate of forecast was over 90%.When the minimum temperature of the site was less than 6 ℃, the regional station may be within the frost;when the minimum temperature of the site was less than 2 ℃, the site may be frost.