基于耕地压力指数的福建省耕地变化与粮食安全研究

基于耕地压力指数,对1978—2015年福建省人口、耕地、粮食变化进行了系统分析,结合趋势理论对2016—2030年福建省粮食、耕地变化等进行了预测。结果表明:1978—2015年福建省耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食产量等均呈下降趋势,而人口数量逐年增加,由此造成福建省粮食供给与需求的差距越来越大;预测2016—2030年福建省人口数量仍然保持增加,但耕地面积和粮食总产量继续稳步降低,造成福建省最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数逐年增加。因此,未来福建耕地超载更为严重,粮食安全形势严峻。据此,提出降低福建省耕地压力、保证区域粮食生产安全、促进地区可持续发展的对策。

Analysis of Cultivated Land and Food Security Based on Cropland Pressure Index in Fujian Province

Based on the cultivated land pressure index, the population, cultivated land and grain change of Fujian Province were analyzed from 1978 to 2015, and the trend of grain and cultivated land in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2030 was forecasted.The results showed that cultivated land area, grain sown area and grain yield of Fujian Province decreased from 1978 to 2015, and the population increased year by year, which resulted in the gap between grain supply and demand in Fujian Province.It was predicted that the population of Fujian Province would continue to increase from 2016 to 2030.However, the total area of cultivated land and total grain output would continue to decrease steadily, resulting in the increase of the minimum per capita arable land area and the cultivated land pressure index in Fujian Province.Therefore, the future load of cultivated land in Fujian is more serious and the food security situation severe.According to these,the countermeasures were put forward to reduce the pressure of cultivated land in Fujian Province,to ensure the safety of regional grain production and to promote the sustainable development of the region.