滨州市小麦产量变化及安全预测研究

分析了滨州市1949~2005年小麦产量、播种面积和单产量变化,并运用马尔可夫链对滨州市的小麦产量进行了预测。结果显示,滨州市小麦产量总体呈增长趋势,且在1949~1980年小麦产量与播种面积和单产量显著相关;1980~2005年小麦产量的影响因素变得复杂,特别是大量化肥、机械动力的投入,使得对播种面积的依赖性减小。利用马尔可夫链对2004和2005年小麦产量的预测结果与实际情况一致。这说明运用马尔可夫模型进行小麦产量的丰歉状态预报是有效可行的,进而可以用来对未来小麦的产量安全进行预测。

Study on the Yield Changes and Safety Prediction of Wheat in Binzhou City

The changes of wheat yield,sowing area and unit yield in Binzhou City during 1949-2005 were analyzed.And the wheat yield in Binzhou City was predicted by using Markov chain.The results showed that wheat yield in Binzhou City showed an overall increasing trend.Wheat yield during 1949-1980 had the significant correlation with sowing area and unit yield.The influencing factors on wheat yield during 1980-2005 became complex,especially the input of a great deal of chemical fertilizer and machinery power reduced the dependence on sowing area.The prediction results of wheat yield in 2004 and 2005 by using Markov chain were accordant with the actual situations.This indicated that it was effective and feasible to predict the wheat yield situations by using Markov model.This would be used to predict the future security of wheat yield.