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| 基于马尔柯夫过程的石河子土地利用变化趋势预测分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 熊黑钢,张雅,张建兵.基于马尔柯夫过程的石河子土地利用变化趋势预测分析[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(11):5051-5053. |
| 作者姓名： | 熊黑钢 张雅 张建兵 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京,100083 2. 青岛市土地局,山东青岛,266001 3. 新疆大学资源环境学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830046 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，北京市属高等学校人才强教计划 |
| 摘 要： | 采用定性分析与定量诊断相结合的方法,对石河子市土地利用数量变化进行模拟预测。研究表明：未来16年内,农用地中耕地面积将继续减少,园地、林地面积将持续增加,但增幅变小;建设用地中,居民点工矿用地、交通用地面积将继续扩大,但增幅会有所降低;水域和未利用地面积都是持续减少,不同的是,水域面积的变化趋势增大,未利用地面积的变化趋势减弱。 |
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 土地利用 趋势分析 |
Prediction Analysis of Land Use Change Trend in Shihezi City Based on Markov Process |
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| Institution: | XIONG Hei-gang et al(College of Arts ＆ Sciences,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100083) |
| Abstract: | Based on the combined methods of quantitative analysis and qualitative diagnosis,the quantitative changes of land use in Shihezi City were simulated and predicted.In the future 16 years,the cultivated area would reduce continuously,the area of garden plot and forest land would continuously increase with lower amplitude.In the construction land,residential land,industrial land,mining land and traffic land would still increase,but the increasing amplitude would decrease.The area of waters and unused land would decrease continuously.The change trend of water area increased,but the change trend of unused land was weakened. |
| Keywords: | Grey system Land use Trend analysis |
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