秦岭-黄淮平原交界带中东部近50年气候变化特征与趋势

20世纪后期，全球增暖趋势明显，受此影响，秦岭-黄淮平原交界带的气候也受到不同程度地影响。选取了其中东部1961～2006年的5个代表站点气温、降水量资料，通过计算趋势系数等现代统计诊断方法，对秦岭-黄淮平原交界带中东部近50年气温和降水变化进行分析，找出其变化趋势，为敏感的交界带自然资源开发利用、自然灾害防御以及制定区域发展规划提供科学依据。结果表明，近50年交界带中东部气温呈不显著上升趋势（0.09 ℃/10年），其中长葛的气候倾向率为0.18 ℃/10年，是年平均气温倾向率的2倍。夏季气温呈负趋势，秋季正处于较暖时期，冬季气候从冷干型逐渐转向暖湿型。年降水量倾向率为15.9 mm/10年，趋势系数为0.16，降水量增加的趋势呈现出从西向东递增的格局。夏、冬季降水表现为正趋势，而春、秋季降水呈负趋势。

Characteristics and Trend of Climatic Change in the East of Transitional Region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Hain in Resent 50 Years

The global warming becomes evident from the last years of the twentieth century,the climate of transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain is affected by it.Based on the temperature and precipitation of five representative stations from 1956 to 2006,the study analyses the climatic change in the east of transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain by using trend coefficient method to find out the trends of change and provide a scientific basis for sensitive transitional region with the development and utilization of natural resources,to defense for natural disasters and formulate program for regional development.The results indicate that the temperature presents an indistinctive increasing trend(0.09 ℃/10 a) in recent 50 years,and the trend rate of temperature of Changge is 0.18 ℃/10 a,it is 2 times for the annual mean temperature trend.Summer temperature presents a negative trend,autumn is in a period of warmer,winter climate turns cold-dry to warm-wet gradually.The trend rate of precipitation is 15.9 mm/10 a,and trend coefficient is 0.16.Precipitation presents increasing trend from west to east.Summer and winter precipitation presents a positive trend,and the spring and autumn precipitation presents a negative trend.