利用中值检测方法研究近45年山东极端冷暖天气气候事件

利用山东省90个气象观测站逐日气温资料,采用中值和Hampel提出的一种新的极端事件检测方法,检测并分析了山东极端冷暖天气气候事件的变化特征。结果表明,极端高温日数无显著变化,极端暖日数趋于上升;极端冷事件显著减少,具有明显的年代变化特征,20世纪60年代为极端冷（暖）事件的高发期,70～80年代中期均有所减少;90年代中期以后为极端暖事件高发期,而极端冷事件急剧减少。在空间分布上,山东省大部分地区极端冷事件趋于减少,而极端暖事件发生频率的变化则呈现出东部沿海地区增加、鲁西南和鲁西北减少的径向分布特征。在20世纪80年代中期全球明显变暖背景下,山东省极端暖事件的线性变化正趋势范围明显变大,大部分地区的极端低温日数的变化趋于平缓,极端冷日数仍以迅速减少为主要趋势。

Research on the Extremely Cold and Warm Weather Climate Events in Shandong Province in Recent 45 Years by Using the Medium Value Detection Method

By using the daily temperature data in 90 meteorological observatories in Shandong Province,the medium value and a kind of new extreme event detection method which was put forward by Hample,the variation characteristics of extremely cold and warm weather climate events in Shandong Province were detected and analyzed.The results showed that the extremely high temperature days had no obvious change,and the extremely warm days tended to increase.The extremely cold event decreased obviously and had the obvious inter-decadal variation characteristic.In the 1960s,the extremely cold(warm) event happened frequently,but they both decreased in the metaphase during the 1970s-1980s.After the metaphase of 1980s,the extremely warm event happened frequently,but the extremely cold event decreased sharply.In the spatial distribution,the extremely cold events in most areas of Shandong tended to decrease.But the occurrence frequency variation of extremely warm event presented the radial distribution characteristics that it increased in the east coast and decreased in the southwest,northwest of Shandong Province.Under the background that the global climate became warm obviously,the positive trend scope of linear variation of the extremely warm event in Shandong Province obviously became large in the metaphase of 1980s.The variation of extremely low temperature days in most areas tended to be mild,and the main trend of extremely cold days was still the rapid decrease.