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大连地区大樱桃始花期预报模式研究
引用本文:尹文昱,肖日光,王宗敏,李光一.大连地区大樱桃始花期预报模式研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(3):1346-1347,1350.
作者姓名:尹文昱  肖日光  王宗敏  李光一
作者单位:尹文昱(辽宁省大连市气象台,辽宁大连,116001);肖日光(辽宁省大连市金州区三十里堡街道农业技术推广站,辽宁大连,116103);王宗敏,李光一(辽宁省大连市金州区气象局,辽宁大连,116100)
摘    要:目的]为准确预报大连地区大樱桃的始花期提供方法支持。方法]通过分析始花期变化趋势与气候因子的相关性,筛选开花前的气象要素,寻找关键因子和关键期,建立了大连地区大樱桃始花期的统计预报模式。结果]金州区晚熟大樱桃的平均始花期为4月21~22日,最早为4月14日,最晚为5月3日。1987~2009年间,始花期不稳定,日序数均方差高达24.0,与平均始花期相差7 d以上年份的比率高达22.7%。始花期与上年冬季及当年2~4月的各月平均气温负相关,与3、4月份平均气温负相关性最高。3、4月份平均气温每升高1℃,始花期提前5 d。利用3、4月份平均气温建立了始花期线性拟合方程,用该方程对1987~2009年大樱桃的始花期进行了预报试验,平均误差为1 d左右。结论]该研究为预报大连地区大樱桃的始花期提供了方法支持。

关 键 词:大樱桃  始花期  预报模式

Research on Forecasting Model of Initial Flowering Period of Large Cherry in Dalian Area
Institution:YIN Wen-yu et al(Dalian Meteorological Observatory,Dalian,Liaoning 116001)
Abstract:Objective] The purpose of the research was to supply method support for accurately predicting the initial flowering period of large cherry in Dalian area.Method] The meteorological elements before flowering were screened out and the key factors and periods were found through analyzing the correlativity between variation trend of initial flowering period and climatic factors.Then the statistic prediction model of initial flowering period of large cherry in Dalian area was set up.Result] The average initial flowering period of late mature large cherry of Jinzhou district was 21st-22nd Apr.and it could be advanced to 14th Apr.and delayed to 3rd May.In 1987-2009,the initial flowering period was unstable,the mean square deviation of daily ordinal numbers was up to 24.0 and the proportion of years with difference more than 7 d from average initial flowering period was up to 22.7%.The initial flowering period was negatively related to monthly mean temperature of annual Feb.-Apr.and last winter and its negative correlativity with mean temperature of Mar.and Apr.was highest.When the mean temperature of Mar.and Apr.was increased for 1 ℃ and the initial flowering period was advanced for 5 d.The linear fitting equation of initial flowering period was established by utilizing the mean temperature of Mar.and Apr.And this equation was used to predict the initial flowering periods of 1987-2009 in experiment and its mean error was around 1 d.Conclusion] This research provided method support for predicting the initial flowering period of large cherry in Dalian area.
Keywords:Large cherry  Initial flowering period  Forecasting model
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