天气发生器与SDSM两种统计降尺度技术对长江中下游地区最高温度模拟的比较研究

首先对降尺度方法做了简要介绍,然后对天气发生器和SDSM 2种统计降尺度技术进行了详细说明,利用2种统计降尺度技术分别对长江中下游地区1961～2000年夏季和全年最高温度进行了模拟和比较。结果表明,2种统计降尺度技术对长江中下游地区夏季和全年最高气温极小值和平均值的模拟效果要比对极大值的模拟效果好;天气发生器模拟的年最高气温极大、极小和平均值与实际观测结果均有较大偏差,模拟效果不是很理想,而对夏季最高气温的模拟效果就相对好很多;SDSM较天气发生器对夏季和全年最高气温的模拟效果都更好,将会成为未来统计降尺度技术的主要发展方向。

A Comparative Study of Weather Generator and SDSM Methods Simulation on Regional Highest Temperature of Middle and Lower Reaches of Chang Jiang River

First,the downscaling methods are briefly introduced in this paper.Then two kinds of downscaling techniques,weather generator and SDSM,are discussed in detail.Simulation and comparison for the summer and annual highest temperature of the middle and lower reaches of Chang Jiang River from 1961~2000 are made by dint of the two kinds of downscaling techniques.The results show that: both two techniques have a better simulation skill on the mean and minimum regional highest temperature than the maximum one in summer and of the year;the simulating values of weather generator has a biggest deviation to the observed resutls,and weather generator performs worse in simulating annual maximum,minimum and mean highest temperature than the ones in summer;SDSM simulates the highest temperature better than weather generator both in summer and of the year,and it will be the main tendency of downscaling techniques in the future.