耕地非农化与收入差距关系的实证研究

目的]为了深入研究中国耕地非农化的作用机理,提高土地作为宏观调控手段的效率。方法]以1988~2004年为样本期,选取年内建设占用耕地新增数量和基尼系数两个指标,运用Granger因果分析方法,探讨了两者间的因果关系。结果]非农化与收入差距之间存在着双向的因果关系:滞后3期的耕地非农化是收入差距扩大的原因;滞后4期的收入差距扩大又导致了耕地非农化的加快。结论]作者提出慎重对待耕地非农化过程、合理分配耕地非农化收益、建立健全社会保障体系三条政策建议,为耕地非农化的调控提供一个有益的参考。

Empirical Analysis of Relationship between Non-agriculturalization of Cultivated Land and Income Disparity

Objective] The aim was to study thoroughly the action mechanism of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land in China and enhance the efficiency of land as macroeconomic control means.Method] With 1988～2004 year as sample period,the newly increase amount of construct occupation in cultivated land in the year and Gini coefficient were selected as indexes.Their causality was discussed through applying Granger causality analysis method.Result] There was bidirectional causality relation between non-agriculturalization of cultivated land and income disparity.The non-agriculturalization of cultivated land in the third lag phase caused the income disparity enlarging and the income disparity in the fourth lag phase caused the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land accelerating.Conclusion] Three policy suggestions such as treating the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land cautiously,distributing the benefit of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land reasonably and establishing and improving social security system were put forward,which supplied a helpful reference for the control of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land.