1966～2015年山东曹县气温变化特征分析

利用1966～2015年曹县气温观测资料，采用线性回归分析、线性倾向估计、M－K检验、Morlet子波分析等方法，分析了近50 a曹县气温变化趋势、周期变化、突变和异常年份。结果表明，近50 a曹县年平均气温呈明显的增温趋势，增温率为0．20℃／10 a；四季中冬季增温趋势最为显著，夏季略有下降；50 a来各月平均气温均呈增温趋势；平均最低、最高气温均呈上升趋势，曹县增温主要表现于冬季气温和最低气温的升高。1991年为曹县年平均气温增暖的突变起始年，20世纪80年代后期以前气温是一个偏低的时期，而其后是一个偏高的时期。曹县平均气温以异常偏低年份居多。

Analysis o f Temperature Variation Characteristics in Caoxian,Shandong Province during 1966-2015

By using temperature observation data in Caoxian during 1966-2015,adopting linear regression analysis,linear tendency estimation, M-K test,Morlet wavelet analysis,temperature variation trend,periodic change,mutation and abnormal years in Caoxian in recent 50 years were analyzed.The results showed that annual average temperature presented a significant warming trend in Caoxian in recent 50 years,with warming rate of 0.20 ℃/10 a; in the whole year,winter warming trend was most significant ,summer was slightly decreased; the average temperature of each month showed a warming trend in recent 50years;the average minimum and maximum temperature showed an upward trend ,and warming in Caoxian was mainly expressed in the winter temperature and the lowest temperature .The average temperature in Caoxian increased significantly in 1991,in the late 1980s,the temperature was a low period,and the later period was a high one.The average temperature in Caoxian was mostly in abnormal low year.