新疆北部晚熟哈密瓜气候条件敏感度分析

目的]研究晚熟哈密瓜对气候因子的敏感度,揭示气候条件的影响方式和影响量.方法]利用新疆北部阿勒泰1998 ～2013年晚熟哈密瓜引种至大面积种植的调查资料,结合同期气候资料,采用相关系数t检验法,分析计算了64个气候因子,并应用t检验原理,逆向分析气候条件敏感度方法,研究了气候条件的影响方式和影响量.结果]应用t检验方法筛选出4级（α=0.01、0.05、0.10、0.20）气候因子;对哈密瓜年景影响显著的关键因子有5个,分别是7月平均气温、6月上旬降水量、6月上旬＞1.0 mm降水日数、6月上旬～8月上旬降水量、7月下旬降水量,其敏感度分别为0.6℃、6.7 mm、1.1d、20.0 mm、5.4 mm.结论]生长期的降水量和大降水日数是影响哈密瓜年景的主要因素.

Analysis on the Sensitivity of Late-maturing Hami-melons Climatic Conditions in Northern Xinjiang

Objective] The research aimed to study the sensitivity of late-maturing Hami-melons on climate factors,the influence way and influence quantities of climatic conditions were revealed.Method] Using the survey data of the late-maturing melon introduction to a large area plantcd from 1998 to 2013 in Aletai of northern Xinjiang,combined with the climate data,64 climatic factors were analyzed and calculate by the correlation coefficient T testing method.The sensitivity method of climatic conditions was analyzed reversely by applying t test principle,the influence way and influence quantities of chmatic conditions were studied.Result] Application of t test method for screening out four class （α =0.01,0.05,0.10,0.20） climate factor.the key factors of significant impact on melon harvest had five,respectively,the average temperature in July,the rainfall of the first ten-day period of June,1.0mm precipitation days of the first ten-day period of June,the precipitation from the first ten-day period of June to the first ten-day period of August and the rainfall of the late ten-day period of July,its sensitivity was 0.6 ℃,6.7 mm,1.1 d,20.0 mm,5.4 mm.Conclusion] The precipitation and precipitation days of the growth period were the main factors affecting the melon amount.