供应链中的“牛鞭效应”研究综述

社会经济的发展、市场需求的波动及供应链自身的发展演进，增加了企业生产运作中的不确定性，给供应链管理带来了巨大挑战。而作为供应链系统运作低效的主要表现之一的“牛鞭效应”，成为供应链管理研究的焦点。该研究对供应链中“牛鞭效应”问题的研究现状进行了分析和总结。首先，说明了供应链中普遍存在的“牛鞭效应”问题对供应链的危害性；其次，对影响“牛鞭效应”的因素进行了分析，并建立模型进行量化；最后，分别从传统模式下和电子商务模式下2个角度分析了减弱“牛鞭效应”的方法，并对未来供应链“牛鞭效应”问题的研究进行了展望和预测。

Research on the Bullwhip Effect in the Supply Chain

Social and economic development, market demand fluctuation and supply chain itself processing, increase the uncertainty in pro- duction and operation of enterprises, and brought enormous challenges for supply chain management. As one of the main manifestations of low operation in supply chain system, bullwhip effect, has become the focus of the supply chain management theory research. The present situation of research on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain problems were analyzed and summarized. First of all, the bullwhip effect and its damage in the supply chain were elaborated; secondly, the influence factors on the bullwhip effect were analyzed, and the model was established to quantify; finally, from two perspectives of traditional mode and electronic commerce mode, method to decrease the bullwhip effect was ana- lyzed, and bullwhip effect in future supply chain was forecasted and predicted.