利用马尔柯夫模型预测成都平原土地利用格局变化——以成都市龙泉驿区为例

以龙泉驿区为例,基于GIS软件建立1996和2004年土地利用现状数据,在分析1996～2004土地利用变化状况的基础上,运用马尔柯夫模型预测龙泉驿区未来50年土地利用变化。研究结果表明:园地、林地、其他农用地、居民点及工矿用地、水利设施用地的面积比例将持续增大;园地、其他农用地、居民点及工矿用地在变化过程中会出现极大值,极大值以后面积比例开始下降,最终达到稳定状态;耕地的面积比例会逐步减少,交通用地的集约化程度会进一步加强,未来相当长的时间内对未利用地的开发复垦力度也会加大;运用马尔柯夫模型对区域土地利用变化的预测,在对模型进行独立假设检验的基础上,发现区域土地利用变化符合马尔柯夫链。

Prediction of the Land-using Pattern Change in Chengdu Plain with Markov's Model

With Longquanyi district as an example,data-base of land-using from 1996 and 2004 was established based on the software GIS.Through the analysis on the characteristics of land-using change based on the data-base,the land-using change of Longquanyi district in the forthcoming 50 years was predicted with Markov's Models,and we found that the acreages of garden plot,woodland,agro-land,residential and industrial land,irrigation-land would increase continuously.And what's more,the acreages of garden plot,agro-land,residential and industrial land would gain its peak and then decrease to stable state.The acreage of plantation would be diminishing and the degree of intensification in traffic-land would be enhanced.The extent of exploitation towards non-utilized land would be intensified as well in a long run.Using the Markov's Models to predict the land-using change,we found that it fitted the Markov's Models by terms of independent hypothesis testing to the model.