河南省农民增收与经济增长关系的实证研究

根据《河南统计年鉴》中1978～2008年农村居民家庭人均纯收入与人均区域生产总值数据,发现两时间序列都服从单位根过程,为非平稳时序。Engle-Granger两步法估计结果显示,两者之间存在着长期稳定的协整均衡关系。Granger因果检验结果表明,仅存在农民增收指向经济增长的单向Granger因果关系。联系河南省实际,分析了导致该结论的可能原因：农村居民数量庞大且收入水平较低,边际消费倾向大于城镇居民,因此农民增收会显著促进消费增长,尤其是低收入农民增收更有利于扩大内需,1978年以来,河南省农民消费水平和结构持续提升,农民增收对经济增长的拉动作用逐步增强;服务于赶超型经济发展战略的城乡二元分割体制,是导致城乡收入差距扩大的历史根源,而城市倾向经济政策,则成为导致城乡收入差距不断扩大的制度根源。

Empirical Research on the Relations between Farmers' Income Increase and Economic Development in Henan Province

According to data of per capita net income of rural households and the per capita regional gross output from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Henan Statistical Yearbook,we know that both of the time series obey the unit root process,so they belong to non-stationary time series.The results of the Engle-Granger two-stage estimation method show that the two terms have long-term stable integration equilibrium relations.The results of Granger Causality Test show that there is only the one way Granger Causality relation from farmers' income increase to economic growth.Connecting with the reality of Henan Province,the possible reasons are analyzed.The population of rural residents is huge and the income level of the rural residents are low,and the marginal consumption tendency is bigger than urban and township residents,so the increase of farmers' income will promote economic growth.Notably,the income increase of farmers is even more helpful to expand domestic demand.Since 1978,the consumption level and structure of farmers in Henan Province is increasing gradually and the role played by of farmers' income increase in stimulating economic growth is increasing.Besides,the urban-rural double system which serves for economic development strategy is the historic root for the expanding gap of urban and rural income.In addition,the economic policy which gives priority to cities is the system root for the expanding gap of rural and urban income.